Winter 2022-23 outlook: what to expect in Boise

After the unforgettable 2016-2017 snowfall of 39.1 inches of snow in Boise, it’s no wonder some of us are a bit worried about the coming winter.

BOISE, Idaho – It was hot in Boise last summer, with the highest number of over 100 days ever (27 days). September also brought hot weather, with 129 days of high temperatures of at least 70 ° or more in Boise – the second-longest episode in history.

But after the hot summer, many wondered what to expect from the coming winter.

After the unforgettable ‘snowy snow’ in 2016-2017 with 39.1 inches of snow in Boise – almost twice the average seasonal snowfall – it’s no wonder some of us are a bit worried this winter.

KTVB received this question via our text line:

“A few, a few people have told me Idaho will have the worst winter with blizzards? Since 1909!

But who is talking about blizzards? To find out, KTVB looked at some famous forecasts for winter 2022-23:

  • Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1818, says: The Far West and the Pacific Northwest will have almost normal winter rainfall; And “Extra flannels are needed!” – direct valuation.
  • Old Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1792, says: In the inter-mountain region, we can expect warmer-than-usual temperatures and higher-than-normal rainfall. And “expect cold and snow from mid November to early February”. Sounds like winter to me!
  • Accuweather says: The weather setup will be one of the most complex and dynamic in recent months due to all the weather factors in the coming months. Mainly due to the expected third winter of La Nina in a row.

La Niña refers to the lower-than-average sea surface temperatures on the Pacific Central Eastern Equator, as opposed to El Niño which stands for warmer sea surface temperatures.

It looks like the equatorial Pacific will be cool for another winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agrees. There is a 75% chance of La Niña during a Northern Hemisphere winter that would be La Niña “three-peat” (meaning our third consecutive La Niña winter).

This may mean that there are some surprises ahead, as there have not been many winters that have been a third in a row in La Niña – but those few similar winters have ended up with nearly average snowfall for Boise. These winters are 1954-57, 1973-76 and 1998-2001.

Another reliable source for a long-range forecast would be the Climate Forecasting Center (CPC), a division of the National Weather Service. CPC temperature forecasts for December, January and February show an equal chance of higher or lower temperatures in southern Idaho. Precipitation forecasts show a slight above average tilt towards precipitation, with an even greater chance in the central mountains.

So what is our KTVB perspective for the winter of 2022-23?

Remember that the reliability and accuracy of weather forecasts decrease as the forecast period progresses. The next 7 days? We are at the top. Moreover? Some vague tips. Seasonal forecast? Expect a very general idea.

We’ll have to see November go by, but right now we think we’ll end another year of nearly average snowfall for Boise (around 20 inches per season), with just above average snowfall in the mountains. Great news for skiers and great news for farmers.

But will it be the worst winter since 1909? Doubtful. To ease the winter worries, a repetition of a snowy winter like 2016-2017 has only about 9% chance of occurring each winter.

The average seasonal snow in Boise is around 20 inches, but not all will come right away. As for the forecasts for the winter, we are sure: expect some cold weather and snow. Extra flannels are a good idea and the first alarm The weather team will be at your disposal at every turn.

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